If you want online news, it is going to cost you. That is the unequivocal message from online publishers at outset of the new year - the "ad-only revenue model is dead".

Last month the popular German news site bild.de announced that it is to start charging for some content with the aim of achieving subscription-only access to its whole site within a year. Content-wire speculated that "by sheer force of numbers the Germans are giving an unmistakable example that will soon have many followers among other popular sites in Europe". It forecast: "Within a year the German web will be teeming with micropayments and subscriptions for what has been free for many years before."

In the influential Seybold Report Luke Cavanagh argues that, while the magic formula for paid access remains elusive, some sites are selling "useful and compelling content that is very hard to find elsewhere". He points out that two paid access sites - Salon.com and Variety.com - have won a subscription-only audience during an economic downturn. Given this, Mr Cavanagh argues that as the economy picks up, both these sites "may find that they have become the standard examples of success".

According to figures released by Jupiter Media Metrix, 78 per cent of publishing executives plan to start charging for at least some kind of content by 2003. The whole industry appears to be turning - with fingers crossed - to the paid access model for a safe passage out of the slump.

Yet the same Jupiter Media Metrix survey found that 69 per cent of consumers are unwilling to pay for any type of online content. The Pew Internet and American Life Project found that only 12 per cent of those who are asked to pay for content do so. Of those who do not, half surf elsewhere and find a free alternative.

So can 78 per cent of publishing executives be wrong about the paid access model?

Yes they can, according to online news expert and author of Editor and Publisher Stop the Presses columnist Steve Outing. He suggests that the rush to the paid access model may be more a symptom of panic than a serious trend. Unless your site is a very focused niche player "have faith that the advertising market will pick up enough to support online media", he says. "By 'don't panic', I mean don't let 2001 despair force you into unwise decisions, like locking down your news site's content and slapping on a subscription fee."

Rich Gordon, an associate professor at Northwestern University's Medill School of Journalism and chair of its New Media Program agrees. In December he said that publishers should not cave in to pressure from 'bad economy' to charge for content.

In a European twist to the debate, the internet research company Jupiter MMXI this month said faith in the paid access model may be misplaced. "While media businesses are launching paid content initiatives across Europe, consumers are still very reluctant to pay for content on their PC."

It found that 47 per cent of European web users would not consider paying for any content in the future. Sixteen per cent said they would consider paying for music online - far more than any other category of content. Only 5 per cent said they would pay for financial information. Jupiter MMXI concluded "the vast majority of the internet will remain free". The only sector that will generate income from paid-for content, it said, will be entertainment.

There is some good news for online publishers. The research found that consumers are far more likely to pay for content on their mobiles. The company predicts that consumers in Europe will spend Euro 3.3 billion on mobile content via mobiles by 2006 - double that predicted for PCs.

"Increasing usage of Short Messaging Service on mobile phones is good news for the media industry," said Olivier Beauvillain from Jupiter MMXI. "Newspapers and magazines struggling to generate direct consumer revenues from the web sites have more opportunity to charge for content on mobile phones."

But, for some, the current debate about charging for online news is meaningless unless publishers and journalists tackle a far bigger problem first.

In a hard-hitting analysis of the internet news model in the Online Journalism Review , Randall Scasny argues that the online news product will have to change before consumers consider parting with their cash.

"Web users do not read the web, rather, they view the web to experience it. To get a web user to pay for content, the new product must provide a viewing experience," he says. "The rules and regulations of print publications are of little value to web viewers."

He says many news sites have "morphed into the same thing that is produced on ABC, NBC and CBS every night on TV... Online new sites crank out just about the same news copy as everyone else".

Mr Scasny argues that the secret to paid access lies in understanding the difference between the web experience and the newspaper user experience. He predicts the paid access model will present the user with a simple news index linking to tightly written abstracts. From here, users will automatically launch audio and video files with the real content. Updates would be posted directly from journalists providing raw copy. Mr Scasny says this would be "beautiful and authentic and original, just what the web-news doctor ordered!"

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