Content providers will continue to push their content on users, rather than users determining what they want to read via the growth of niche markets, according to a major study by the European Commission-funded Mudia Project.
The project, which was set up in 2001 to investigate online media development across the continent, was forced to revise its initial assumptions in the wake of the dot com crash and September 11th, according to its latest report; 'The future of New Media Industries: Validated scenarios to 2005 and beyond'.
It says: “The scenario exercise was originally based on the assumption that there would be a shift in content provision from suppliers to users. It was expected that this would fundamentally change market structures and challenge the vested powers of existing media content companies... the original assumptions were overly optimistic.”
An initial assumption was that many more small enterprises aimed at niche markets would become content producers, encouraged by the greater accessibility of technology. There would be new types of content demand and greater customisation of content, the report says.
But while these developments are still likely to take place in the longer term - along with new players entering the media sector from related industries such as telecommunications and computing - the current recession has forced revenue issues to the fore.
It adds: “This seemingly transitory phase in which online media find themselves should alert media managers and policy makers. It can be described as part of the normal innovation cycle, which starts with hype and optimism, is followed by the collapse of those high expectations, and then slowly moves towards a more realistic re-start. It means that investors and companies need to be patient to enable a new market take-off.”
The report's findings are supported by other research by PriceWaterhouseCoopers. It claims the internet will not see significant new growth until after 2004.
However it found that spending by global entertainment and media industries grew last year and is expected to reach 1.5 trillion Euros by 2006.
Sources:
www.mudia.org
www.europemedia.net/shownews.asp?ArticleID=10808
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